MT Elk Unit 502
AI Scout Analysis
# MT 502 Bighorn Sheep — Tactical Analysis ## Draw Difficulty **Permit 20 (rifle/general season):** Extremely competitive. Residents face only a **2% overall draw rate** (5 tags for 202 applicants). Per-point odds are volatile and mostly 0%—you need 9+ points to see meaningful draw odds (20% at 9 pts, 100% at 17 pts). This is a **multi-decade grind** for residents. **Permit 21 (archery):** Dramatically different. Residents draw at **100%** (1,800 tags available)—this is effectively unlimited access and a major trophy opportunity. Nonresidents also draw well at **69%** overall, though individual point levels show 100% draw across all point thresholds. ##...
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| Year | Weapon | Residency | Applicants | Tags | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Permit 20 | resident | 202 | 5 | 2.5% |
| 2025 | Permit 21 Archery | resident | 908 | 1,800 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | Permit 21 Archery | nonresident | 260 | 180 | 69.2% |
| 2024 | Permit 20 | resident | 263 | 5 | 1.9% |
| 2024 | Permit 21 Archery | resident | 854 | 1,800 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | Permit 21 Archery | nonresident | 263 | 180 | 68.4% |
| 2023 | Permit 20 | resident | 522 | 30 | 5.8% |
| 2023 | Permit 20 | nonresident | 20 | 3 | 15.0% |
| 2023 | Permit 21 | resident | 931 | 1,800 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | Permit 21 | nonresident | 221 | 180 | 81.5% |
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